[09:00 IST] MORNING PULSE — THURSDAY MAR 26, 2026
!! MARKET CLOSED TODAY — RAM NAVAMI HOLIDAY !!
!! BANKNIFTY/SENSEX EXPIRY WAS YESTERDAY (MAR 25) !!
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GLOBAL CLOSE (MAR 25)
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US MARKETS (Strong rally on Iran peace hopes)
S&P 500: 6,591.90 (+0.54%)
NASDAQ: 21,929.83 (+0.77%)
Dow Jones: 46,429.49 (+0.66%)
EUROPE (Strong rally)
FTSE 100: +0.94%
DAX 40: +1.78%
CAC 40: +1.51%
STOXX 600: +1.41%
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ASIA LIVE (MAR 26)
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Nikkei 225: 53,657 (-0.17%)
Hang Seng: ~24,400 (subdued)
Shanghai: 3,909 (-0.58%)
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GIFT NIFTY
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GIFT Nifty: 23,195 (-0.45%)
Previous NIFTY Close: 23,306
Implied Gap: -111 pts (-0.5%)
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INDIA CLOSE (MAR 25)
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NIFTY 50: 23,306.45 (+394 pts, +1.72%)
BANK NIFTY: 53,708.10 (+1,102 pts, +2.10%)
SENSEX: 75,273.45 (+1,205 pts, +1.63%)
Sectors: ALL GREEN
Top: Consumer Durables (+3.5%), Auto, Bank, Metal, Realty (all >2%)
Laggard: IT (subdued — TCS, Tech Mahindra weak)
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FII/DII FLOWS (MAR 25)
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FII Cash: -1,805 Cr (SELLERS)
DII Cash: +5,430 Cr (BUYERS)
STREAK: FII selling 16+ days (Feb 26 to Mar 20)
FII sold Rs.1.04 LAKH CRORE in 2026 so far
DII absorbed — bought Rs.1.17 lakh Cr same period
READ: DIIs providing strong support. FII outflow continues but pace moderating.
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COMMODITIES & FX
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Brent Crude: $104.21 (+1.95%) — Iran rejected ceasefire
WTI Crude: $92.17 (+2.05%)
Gold: $4,521/oz (+2.7%) — safe haven bid
Silver: $72.11/oz (+3.6%)
USD/INR: 94.11 (INR weak — down 9.78% YoY)
DXY: 99.65 (+0.22%)
US 10Y Yield: 4.35% (elevated — hawkish Fed)
Bitcoin: $71,085 (+3.86%) — risk-on bounce
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INDIA VIX
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VIX: 26.73 (+17.17%)
REGIME: HIGH VOLATILITY — DANGER ZONE
Context: VIX spiked from 23 to 27 intraday. Above 22 = high risk.
Action: Reduced size, wider SL, only high-conviction trades.
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MACRO TODAY
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INDIA: Ram Navami holiday — MARKETS CLOSED
No trading on NSE/BSE today.
US: No major data today.
Friday Mar 28: US GDP Q4 Final + PCE Price Index (CRITICAL)
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KEY EVENTS THIS WEEK
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Mar 26 (Thu): India markets CLOSED (Ram Navami)
Mar 27 (Fri): India markets OPEN
Mar 28 (Sat): US GDP Q4 Final + PCE (Fed favorite inflation gauge)
Mar 30 (Mon): India banks OPEN (first day after long weekend)
Mar 31 (Tue): Mahavir Jayanti — potential holiday
Apr 1 (Wed): Annual bank closure + SEBI algo framework enforcement
FOMC: Done (Mar 18) — held at 3.5-3.75%, 1 cut signaled for 2026
RBI: Next meeting Apr 7-9
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OVERNIGHT STORY
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Market closed for Ram Navami. GIFT Nifty trading at 23,195, implying a -0.5% gap down when markets reopen Friday.
Why the gap down signal?
1. Iran REJECTED US ceasefire offer — oil rebounded +2%
2. Geopolitical uncertainty persists — VIX at 27
3. Asia trading subdued — Nikkei/Shanghai in red
4. Europe expected to open lower today
However, underlying tone is CAUTIOUSLY POSITIVE:
- US markets rallied strongly on peace hopes
- India had 2-day relief rally before holiday (+3.5% combined)
- DIIs absorbing FII selling
- Oil still below $105 (not crisis level yet)
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SECTOR WATCH
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IN PLAY (if oil stays below $105):
+ Banks — rate sensitive, DII favorite
+ Metals — if China stimulus hopes revive
+ Consumer Durables — domestic demand play
+ Auto — crude correlation inverse
AVOID:
- IT — US recession fears, weak guidance
- OMCs (BPCL, HPCL, IOC) — crude above $100
- Airlines — fuel cost pressure
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CORPORATE
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RESULTS: Q4 earnings season starts mid-April
- TCS: Apr 9
- ICICI Bank: Apr 18
- HCL Tech: Apr 21
- Infosys: Apr 23
- Nestle: Apr 21
AGM/BOARD: None major today (holiday)
BLOCK DEALS: Check NSE for Mar 25 data
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EXPIRY STATUS
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Today (Mar 26): MARKET CLOSED — NO EXPIRY
Yesterday (Mar 25): SENSEX monthly expiry was SHIFTED to Wednesday due to Ram Navami holiday
Next week:
- Tuesday Mar 31: NIFTY weekly expiry (if market open)
- Wednesday Apr 1: BANKNIFTY weekly expiry (annual closure day — may shift)
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POLITICAL/GEOPOLITICAL
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US-IRAN: Iran rejected 15-point US ceasefire proposal. Laid out own 5-point plan including Hormuz control. Negotiations ongoing via Pakistan mediator.
INDIA:
- All-party meeting on West Asia crisis held
- PM Modi in France — Rafale M deal confirmed
- State elections (WB, TN, Kerala) campaigns heating up
- Parliament debating economic/energy security
RISK: Strait of Hormuz remains flashpoint. Any escalation = oil spike = market crash.
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SENTIMENT: CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH
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GIFT Nifty implies -0.5% gap down Friday
BUT underlying setup is supportive:
+ US/Europe rallied strong
+ India had 2-day relief rally
+ DIIs buying heavily
+ Oil below crisis level ($105)
- Iran rejected ceasefire
- VIX at 27 (high)
- FII selling streak continues
KEY WATCH: Oil price reaction. If Brent stays below $105, relief rally can extend. If Hormuz escalation, all bets off.
FRIDAY PLAN:
1. Observe first 30 min — let gap settle
2. If gap down fills and NIFTY holds 23,100 — bullish
3. If gap down extends below 23,000 — cautious
4. VIX at 27 = wider SL, smaller size
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This is not investment advice.
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This content is AI-generated for informational and educational purposes only. It is not investment advice. NiftyX does not recommend any securities or trading strategies. Please consult a SEBI-registered investment advisor before making trading decisions.